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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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