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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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