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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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