Thursday, 05 July 12 DRY BULK MARKET MOVES FURTHER UP THE HILL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its growth momentum by the middle of the week, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose by an additional 40 points to 1,103 points yesterday, as a result of stronger demand for Capesizes, ships of up to 180,000-200,000 tons used to haul cargoes like iron ore and coal. The respective BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) was up by 79 points to 1,369, while almost all ship types were higher on Wednesday. It was just the Handysize market which was practically unchanged to 716 points.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke Fearneys commented on the Capesize market by stating that “the Cape market has been slowly but surely coming back over the past week with C4TC pushing up by USD 2k on the spot level and USD 1k on mtd. With a slow end to the week and start to this one the Atlantic basin has finally got a more positive feel with some positional tightness and very few ballasters arriving in the next few weeks, C3 levels are again back over the USD 18 level. The Pacific has also shown upwards momentum with C5 back over the USD 7 level, a relief to owners that it is clawing back from the mid USD 6 level it has been down too in the past couple of weeks, this is due to more activity from the major miners on this route. There has been a little period activity seen as the market ticks up, around the USD 10k-11k level seems about the current level” it noted.
On the Panamax front, Fearnleys noted that “stimulated by a steady flow of fresh spot requirements, predominantly in the Atlantic, the market has firmed up to higher levels at higher volumes. In the western hemisphere a tighter tendency pushes rates closer to 10k for T/A rounds and upper teens for fronthaul as most owners hesitate to go east. The sentiment remains positive in the Pacific with rates climbing to 8k for NOPAC and 10k for ECSA rounds bss Singapore delivery. Assisted by the optimism takers are looking for efficient tonnage for period at around 8k for short period and upper 9´s for about 1-year period. The forward curve is not moving considerably as long term demand vs. supply fundamentals remains gloomy” it noted.
Finally, on the Handy front, the report mentioned that the “Supra market in the Atlantic climbed slowly during the last week, with fresh cargoes entering the market. Cont/US Gulf fixed tick above USD 5k/day, while US Gulf/Cont concluded close to USD 27k/day. Fronthauls ex Cont were paid around USD 23600, while tonnage ex Canakkale fixed around USD 24500. The Pacific market has seen increased activity and rates are getting firm on Indo and Nopac rounds. For Indo-India, large eco Supra now fixed at USD 8k basis North China dely. Some owners also asking for mid-teens for SE Asia dely. Nopac also fixed at USD 9k basis Japan. Indian iron ore market remains quiet with less activity on WCI & ECI. WCI-China rates around USD 8k and ECI-China around USD 5k. RBCT rv fixed at APS USD 10k + BB USD 360k. Red Sea fertilisers to India are fixed high teens. Not much activity seen on short period and rates around USD 10,500 for large Supra” Fearnleys concluded.
In an update on the market, Commodore Research & Consultancy mentioned that “in June, various parts of southern China (which is where the majority of China’s hydropower is produced) received more than double the amount of rain that historically occurs every June. A large part of southern China normally receives 200 to 250 millimeters of rain every June. This past June, however, several parts of southern China received 400 to 500mm of rain.
Chinese hydropower production has been able to continue to surge as a result of the heavy rainfall. Most recently, Tropical Storm Doksuri made landfall on Saturday and helped pushed month-end rainfall totals over 400mm in many areas. *The surge in hydropower production will continue to put pressure on Chinese thermal coal demand*. Southern China has largely recovered from drought, and we believe hydropower production stands a good chance of setting a record in July or August” it noted. Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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