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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
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Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
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Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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