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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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