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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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