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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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