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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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