Friday, 29 June 12 INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* million tons in April 2012. The May coal exports slightly down or drops just 1 percent from compared to April exports.
According to available information from coal exporters, the China was the largest importer of Indonesian coal in May, followed by India. China’s Indonesian coal imports has reached around 11.19* million tons in May, in the meantime India's imports around 7.57* million tons.
Indonesia's coal exports to China has increased by 1.78* percent in May to 11.19* million tons compared to last month, but to India dropped by 0.78* percent. Indian utilities imported 7.57* million tons in May, compared to 7.63* million tons in April 2012.
83.76* percent of total Indonesian coal exports in May shipped to top five traditional coal importers of Indonesian coal such as China, India, South Korea, Taiwan And Japan.
“Inquiries from India and China are still in the market, but the conclusions rates are lower compare to floating of inquiries" said an international coal trader. The FOB bids are not favoring suppliers at this moment, the gap between offers and bids are quite wider he added.
"This is the bottom level of price that we can accept to sell our cargo. If the coal prices fall further we may cut our production or if the situation goes worst, then we may stop totally our production until the situation rebound ", said a top officer from a coal mine in Sumatera. An another coal miner from South Kalimantan also shared the same view. Some of small scale producers are already reduced their output to 50 percent.
5,000 kcal/kg GAR coal from Central Kalimantan is being offered low sixties, but the bids were lower than those numbers.
In the meantime, a 5,800 kcal/kg GAR coal is being offered around mid seventies this week against bids of low seventies, a trader said. There is not much conclusions. However the offers and bids are flowing in to the market as normal level.
It is not clear whether the government of Indonesia will interfere to stabilize the coal prices of Indonesian origin by instructing coal miners to cut their production to keep demand stable to achieve better prices.
According to mining law 4/ 2009 all the miners in Indonesia to requires to follow government declared coal prices ( HBA) when they conclude a coal sales and purchase contract with their buyers.
However, in this month, the government declared minimum selling price of Indonesian coal for June delivery was higher than the current market prices. The producers, specially who are selling their coal on spot basis, forced to sell lower than HBA price but paying royalties and corporate taxes based on HBA prices.
“The profit margins are almost nearing to zero for those who sell coal on spot deals and low GCV / High moisture producers”, a small scale coal producer from South Kalimantan said.
The government declared HBA in June fall to lowest level since January 2011 and expecting to fall again in next month. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in June fell 5.36 percent MoM and 18.80 percent YoY.
The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia sets the coal’s spot price benchmark for June 2012 at US$ 96.65 per ton (basis 6322 GAR coal), which was US$ 5.47 lower than May 2012 Price and US$ 22.38 lower compared to the same period in 2011.
According to DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC coal swaps, Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for August deliveries are moving positive direction since Monday this week.
According ongoing COALspot.com weekly polling, 41.12 percent of voters (as of now the total voters were 338) are believes that, the current coal spot price weakness is temporary and it will rebound before end of this year. 44.83 percent of producers (58) and 36.17 percent end-users (47) are also in the same view.
The coal export information within this article is provided by COALspot.com on an "as is" and "as available” basis. All details about, given in good faith and has been collected from various press reports, organization and individuals considered reliable but without guarantee. While every care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of information furnished in this article. COALspot.com shall be obliged if errors / omissions are brought to its notice for carrying out corrections in this article.* Figures are subject to verification (cs)
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