Thursday, 28 June 12 DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the Supramax Index rising by 22 points, as rates for supramaxes were up by $229 to $12,852. Similarly, average daily rates for Handies were higer by 440 to $10,334. Capesizes also moved to higher ground, as the Baltic Capesize Index was up by 14 points, or $170, with average daily rates now at $3,826. By contrast, the Panamax market has kept on falling, as average earnings yesterday were set at $7,815.
In its weekly report, shipbroker Fearnleys noted on the Capesize market that “bunker prices have stabilized at lower levels and the freight market has seemed to have stabilized, with the exception of the Atlantic which is dismal. The usual large operators have continued to turn over their fleets at stable rates (just below USD 10k daily). The front haul market has also hit a bottom, and is now flat. We do not expect any major movement in the rates and any changes are more likely to be related to bunker cost than to the basic supply and demand picture” it said.
In the Supramax/Handysize markets, Fearnley’s noted that «the Supramax market is still looking very healthy compared to the other sizes of tonnage. In the Atlantic supply of fresh orders helped the rates to reach the range of USD 24-25k for the voyages from USG/ESAM to Continent and Med. Period activity focused mainly on 3/5 or 4/6 months employments for which vessels were paid USD 8.5/10k daily based on the delivery in the East. Pacific market has been steady and looking to remain firm in coming days as rates are getting firm on Indo and Nopac rounds. For Indo-India, large eco Supra now fixed at USD 9k basis South China dely. Some owners also asking for low teens for SE Asia dely. Nopac also fixed bss at USD 10k basis Japan. Indian iron ore market remains quiet with less activity on WCI & ECI. WCI-China rates around USD 8k and ECI-China around USD 5k. RBCT rv fixed at APS
USD 10k + BB USD 350k. Red Sea fertilisers to India are fixed high teens. Not much activity seen on short period and rates around USD 9k for large Supra” the report noted.
Finally, on the Panamax front, it noted that “even though there were fresh cargoes entering the Atlantic it is not sufficient to have any major effect on the rates due to the growing list of available ships. In the Med, the tonnage list is shorter, perhaps giving owners the idea they might achieve good rates, however it is simply not a demand for prompt vessels in this area. More cargoes are appearing in the Atlantic for end July dates, however this is of no comfort to the many owners with prompt positions. Tarvs now being fixed in region of USD 8k. The ECSA market is served by ballasters from India and the Feast were they achieve rates around USD 14.5+475k BB basis APS delivery. Pacific market is quiet but rates seem to be quite stable with Aussie and Indo RV being the prominent trades. As for Nopac, the grain cargos are quite scarce. Rates for rounds are around 5-6k. The period market finds little support and few fixtures are reported this week. Short periods like 4/6 mos are being paid in region of 9-9.5k for Feast delivery” Fearnley’s concluded.
In a relative note, Commodore Research noted the effect of the recent weather conditions (heavy rainfall) in Southern China, with regards to the dry bulk market. Commodore mentioned that Chinese hydropower production has continued to surge and is putting added pressure on demand for thermal coal. With drought conditions finally seeing real improvement, it is possible that hydropower production will approach record levels within a few months. Panamax rates have been most affected by the decline in demand for imported thermal coal cargoes and are poised to come under additional pressure” mentioned the US-based analyst.
It added that “to make matters even worse for upcoming thermal coal demand prospects (and better for hydropower production prospects), southern China is now expected to be hit by another tropical storm. Tropical Storm Doksuri is currently situated east of the Philippines and is expected to head on a northwesterly track towards China. As of now, Tropical Storm Doksuri is expected to make landfall near Hong Kong on Saturday and bring a very large amount of rain to southern China over the weekend. Hydropower production will benefit if the storm continues on its projected path and makes landfall as planned. As hydropower production increases, there will be less demand for thermal coal” the company concluded. Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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