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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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