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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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