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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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