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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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