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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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