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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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