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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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