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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
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Showing 1421 to 1425 news of total 6846 |
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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