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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 08 April 19
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Sunday, 07 April 19
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KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Showing 1406 to 1410 news of total 6846 |
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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