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Monday, 31 October 11
CHINAS HUNGER FOR INDONESIAN COAL AT THREE YEAR-HIGH AS WINTER NEARS - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE


COALspot.com - Chinese demand for power-station coal from Indonesia has soared to its highest level in three years, as central heating plants and power stations on the mainland boost reserves ahead of an early winter.

Central and southern regions reliant on hydropower will see electricity shortfalls through the winter and into the spring, China’s National Energy Administration has said, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

Centralized plants in northern China usually disperse heat from November through March. But temperatures in the region have dropped 14 degrees in the past two weeks, with unseasonable chills in the center and east, noted the China Meteorological Administration.

All told, this could mean a base shortage of 26 gigawatts, Xinhua reported, quoting a government senior energy ministry spokesman. China is the world’s biggest consumer of coal; Indonesia is a top exporter of power station coal.

In the past month, the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association recorded coal with a value of 5,500 kilocalories per kilogram increasing to a range of 850 reminbi ($133) to 860 reminbi per ton – the highest such price hike since October 2008.

At the same time, imports rose 25 percent to 19.1 million metric tons over 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission reported late last month.

Amid global economic uncertainty, this is a boon for Indonesia, the biggest, fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia. At the third quarter, the Indonesian Coal Mining Association reported output of some 270 million tons – 30 million tons monthly – placing Indonesia within its 340 million-ton target by year-end.

Power plant construction, not just in China, but across the region, will further bolster Indonesian coal, said Simon Wong, a senior analyst at Moody’s, a credit ratings agency.

Thus “Indonesia’s coal miners have accelerated their strategies of vertical integration for the purposes of enhancing control over pit-to-port operations, operating efficiency and cost control,” he said.

Still, Indonesian coal carries investor risks due to uneven quality, geographical factors and evolving mining regulations. In particular, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s announcement of a ban on un-processed  coal exports beginning 2014 is causing anxiety – and an “Indonesia coal rush”.
By : Joseph Kirschke

About Joseph Kirschke
Joseph Kirschke is a Jakarta/Beijing-based Communications Consultant and Political Analyst who works with international investors, media and energy and trade companies.

Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.



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