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Thursday, 27 October 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES DOWN AS CHINAS IRON ORE DEMAND LOSES GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


A plunge in Chinese iron ore demand, as a result of high steel inventories and a bleak outlook regarding steel prices, has prompted the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) to fall by 0.74% yesterday, ending the session at 2,145 points.

All dry bulk segments retreated yesterday, with reports of lower iron ore prices leading the market’s sentiment. In the recent past, those lower iron ore prices had prompted a restockpiling of iron ore from Chinese steel mills, but the trend is currently shifting. The Capesize market was down by 0.71% to 3,612 points, while the Panamax one was down by 0.76% yesterday to 1,961 points.

The latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley’s, referring to the Capesize market said that “reaching new highs, primarily due to a combination of widespread pacific congestion, generally healthy spot volumes and increased atlantic activity in particular. Having reached y-t-d best spot average of usd 32k, it seems however this segment may be in for a short-term slide. Major miners and mills are predominantly absent, with a resultant build-up of pacific ballasters - remaining spot activity is driven by traders and operators with atlantic focus. Before dropping sharply, forward paper values has given good support to period - resulting in 180000 dwt/2009/china beg nov done for 11-13 months at usd 18k, 207000 dwt/2008/china end nov fixing usd 19500 for 11-13 months and 179000 dwt/2010/china spot for 5-7 months at usd 21k” said Fearnley’s.

In a separate report, Piraeus-based shipbroker Shiptrade Services mentioned that the week begun slowly as most of the majors were at the conferences in Madrid, and activity at both basins being slim. “Atlantic basin was quiet, but still some fixtures occurred. Rates for Transatlantic rounds concluded at USD 35.000per day, while on the Fronthaul trade, rates for trips to F.East, levels concluded at USD 50.500per day. On the Tubarao/Qingdao trade rates were fluctuating between USD 29.00 - 29.75 pmt. In the Pacific basin we could see only a few alternative cargoes ex S.Africa so Owners were looking for the Australian parcels. At weeks closing, rates for the Australia/China trade concluded at USD 12.50pmt, while on TCT basis, rates for Pacific round concluded at USD 30.000 per day basis N.China delivery” said Shiptrade.

In the Panamax market, Fearnley’s said that “the Atlantic basin stays tight for prompt/November tonnage, consequently rates keep stabile at good levels. Owners asking18-19k in the Atlantic, whilst fronthaul still at firm 27k+ 700 from US Gulf to Far East, and 25/26k from Brazil out. Fresh amount of coal cargoes in Atlantic together with grain out of Gulf to Far East give positive signs for coming weeks. In the Pacific short periods pending around USD 13,250/13,500 while the NoPac round are being fixed around USD 12k. The backhauls are still hovering around a conservative USD 5k. Despite the constant delivery of new tonnage, demand seems to continue in good pace” said the Nordic-based shipbroker.

Similarly, Shiptrade mentioned that “rates slightly dropped since the cargo volume was not enough to cover the available tonnage. In the Atlantic basin, the USG market still remained the driving force, especially for the Fronthaul cargoes with fixtures reported at USD 26.500+650.000 GBB basis APS USG. On the other hand, Bl. Sea seemed to be a premium area as fixtures reported at USD 45.000 per day for 1 trip to China. Rates for Transatlantic round remained at USD 17.500 - 18.000per day. In the Pacific basin activity reduced starting from Tuesday, as many Charterers with November stems decided not to cover their enquiries yet, and rates slightly dropped. At week’s closing, rates for S.China/S.E.Asia positions interested for Indonesia round, concluded at USD 15.500 - 16.000per day. Positions at N.china/Japan range interested for trips ex NOPAC could get USD 15-15.000per day, while some fixtures reported at USD 16.000per day” said Shiptrade.

As for the Supramax market, which sustained the most losses on Wednesday’s session, Shiptrade said that “the market remained steady in the Atlantic, but Pacific lost steam. In the Atlantic basin, the USG region kept the league once again. Rates ex USG for trip to continent/East Mediterranean concluded close to USD 30.000 per day, while for trips to F.East fixtures reported at USD 36.000 per day. On the Mediterranean/Bl.Sea market, rates for trips to F.East held around USD 25.000per day, while rates for trips to USG were between USD 7-9.000per day. On the ECSA region, vessels concluded at rates close to USD 22-23.000 basis W.Africa delivery for trips to F.East, and for trips to Continent/Med rates concluded at USD 16-17.000per day. In the pacific basin, rates slightly dropped, but many Owners still preferred to cover their vessels for short period at rates between USD 14--15.000per day, rather than keeping them in the spot market. Those who remained on the spot market could fix cargoes ex Indonesia to direction India but levels were fluctuating. Some fixtures reported at rates from USD 9.000 - 15.000 per day. On the other hand, for the N.China positions, the cargoes ex Nopac remained an attractive solution at rates of USD 14 -15.000per day” said Shiptrade.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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