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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
...
Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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