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Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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