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Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation investments of at least US$125 billion (bn) will still be required between now and 2020. A recent report titled ‘Power Crunch in South East Asia’ provides insight into this by examining regional demand hotspots of Java-Bali, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Graham Tyler, Head of Asia Gas and Power Research, says, “South East Asia’s power demand growth will outpace Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the next decade. The major demand centres alone will see demand grow from about 92,000 Megawatts (MW) in 2011 to 163,000 MW in 2020, creating a drop in reserve margins, particularly in the 2014 to 2015 period. Therefore timely investments for new power generation will be required.”
The report forecasts that capacity additions in the region are expected to top 30,000 MW and 85,000 MW by 2015 and 2020 respectively. This requires an increase in power project investment from US$44 bn by 2015 to at least US$125 bn by 2020, even if an economic downturn with GDP growth levels similar to 2009 occurs for two consecutive years from 2010-2013. The bulk of the new investment is in coal, amounting to 42% of the investment. The remainder is dominated by gas, which accounts for 18% of the total.
Mr Tyler says, “If immediate actions are taken to correct the existing situation and attract the level of investment required, the impact of power shortages will be softened from 2015 onwards. To achieve this, governments need to encourage the project financing required to meet the power capacity investment levels by speeding up regulatory and approval processes.”
Wood Mackenzie places reserve capacity at an optimal level of 15%. This is crucial to meet unplanned or unexpected power needs. A fall below this will be uncomfortable but if it drops below ten percent, scheduled power cuts should be expected as a regular feature, especially in peak demand seasons that usually fall within the warmer or drier months of the year. Vietnam is hardest hit in the drier months as 40% of their power needs are currently met by hydropower.
The report highlights that Vietnam and Indonesia are most exposed to a potential power crunch and hence require the most investments, representing about 60% of the total required. The regions in West Java and South Vietnam, are particularly in need of new capacity, as they currently have low margins and an over-dependence on power flows from other regions.
Malaysia and Thailand will also see reserve capacity fall below optimal levels in the period to 2015, but the impact should be more manageable as they have been quick to respond to the power shortages by importing power, announcing new projects and speeding up the development of existing ones. These steps will alleviate the power crunch unless project delays or higher demand growth occurs, in which case both countries will also need additional investments.
Summarising, Mr Tyler says, “Power demand growth will increase substantially in the next decade. This strong growth signals that investments of US$125 bn are required to build power capacity additions, even if we see a repeat of 2009’s economic recession over the next two years. Encouraging timely investments in West Java and South Vietnam will be especially crucial and governments can play a part in prioritising investments by expediting processes where possible.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. Wood Mackenzie analyses and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com.
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Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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