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Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation investments of at least US$125 billion (bn) will still be required between now and 2020. A recent report titled ‘Power Crunch in South East Asia’ provides insight into this by examining regional demand hotspots of Java-Bali, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Graham Tyler, Head of Asia Gas and Power Research, says, “South East Asia’s power demand growth will outpace Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the next decade. The major demand centres alone will see demand grow from about 92,000 Megawatts (MW) in 2011 to 163,000 MW in 2020, creating a drop in reserve margins, particularly in the 2014 to 2015 period. Therefore timely investments for new power generation will be required.”
The report forecasts that capacity additions in the region are expected to top 30,000 MW and 85,000 MW by 2015 and 2020 respectively. This requires an increase in power project investment from US$44 bn by 2015 to at least US$125 bn by 2020, even if an economic downturn with GDP growth levels similar to 2009 occurs for two consecutive years from 2010-2013. The bulk of the new investment is in coal, amounting to 42% of the investment. The remainder is dominated by gas, which accounts for 18% of the total.
Mr Tyler says, “If immediate actions are taken to correct the existing situation and attract the level of investment required, the impact of power shortages will be softened from 2015 onwards. To achieve this, governments need to encourage the project financing required to meet the power capacity investment levels by speeding up regulatory and approval processes.”
Wood Mackenzie places reserve capacity at an optimal level of 15%. This is crucial to meet unplanned or unexpected power needs. A fall below this will be uncomfortable but if it drops below ten percent, scheduled power cuts should be expected as a regular feature, especially in peak demand seasons that usually fall within the warmer or drier months of the year. Vietnam is hardest hit in the drier months as 40% of their power needs are currently met by hydropower.
The report highlights that Vietnam and Indonesia are most exposed to a potential power crunch and hence require the most investments, representing about 60% of the total required. The regions in West Java and South Vietnam, are particularly in need of new capacity, as they currently have low margins and an over-dependence on power flows from other regions.
Malaysia and Thailand will also see reserve capacity fall below optimal levels in the period to 2015, but the impact should be more manageable as they have been quick to respond to the power shortages by importing power, announcing new projects and speeding up the development of existing ones. These steps will alleviate the power crunch unless project delays or higher demand growth occurs, in which case both countries will also need additional investments.
Summarising, Mr Tyler says, “Power demand growth will increase substantially in the next decade. This strong growth signals that investments of US$125 bn are required to build power capacity additions, even if we see a repeat of 2009’s economic recession over the next two years. Encouraging timely investments in West Java and South Vietnam will be especially crucial and governments can play a part in prioritising investments by expediting processes where possible.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. Wood Mackenzie analyses and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand  ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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