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Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation investments of at least US$125 billion (bn) will still be required between now and 2020. A recent report titled ‘Power Crunch in South East Asia’ provides insight into this by examining regional demand hotspots of Java-Bali, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Graham Tyler, Head of Asia Gas and Power Research, says, “South East Asia’s power demand growth will outpace Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the next decade. The major demand centres alone will see demand grow from about 92,000 Megawatts (MW) in 2011 to 163,000 MW in 2020, creating a drop in reserve margins, particularly in the 2014 to 2015 period. Therefore timely investments for new power generation will be required.”
The report forecasts that capacity additions in the region are expected to top 30,000 MW and 85,000 MW by 2015 and 2020 respectively. This requires an increase in power project investment from US$44 bn by 2015 to at least US$125 bn by 2020, even if an economic downturn with GDP growth levels similar to 2009 occurs for two consecutive years from 2010-2013. The bulk of the new investment is in coal, amounting to 42% of the investment. The remainder is dominated by gas, which accounts for 18% of the total.
Mr Tyler says, “If immediate actions are taken to correct the existing situation and attract the level of investment required, the impact of power shortages will be softened from 2015 onwards. To achieve this, governments need to encourage the project financing required to meet the power capacity investment levels by speeding up regulatory and approval processes.”
Wood Mackenzie places reserve capacity at an optimal level of 15%. This is crucial to meet unplanned or unexpected power needs. A fall below this will be uncomfortable but if it drops below ten percent, scheduled power cuts should be expected as a regular feature, especially in peak demand seasons that usually fall within the warmer or drier months of the year. Vietnam is hardest hit in the drier months as 40% of their power needs are currently met by hydropower.
The report highlights that Vietnam and Indonesia are most exposed to a potential power crunch and hence require the most investments, representing about 60% of the total required. The regions in West Java and South Vietnam, are particularly in need of new capacity, as they currently have low margins and an over-dependence on power flows from other regions.
Malaysia and Thailand will also see reserve capacity fall below optimal levels in the period to 2015, but the impact should be more manageable as they have been quick to respond to the power shortages by importing power, announcing new projects and speeding up the development of existing ones. These steps will alleviate the power crunch unless project delays or higher demand growth occurs, in which case both countries will also need additional investments.
Summarising, Mr Tyler says, “Power demand growth will increase substantially in the next decade. This strong growth signals that investments of US$125 bn are required to build power capacity additions, even if we see a repeat of 2009’s economic recession over the next two years. Encouraging timely investments in West Java and South Vietnam will be especially crucial and governments can play a part in prioritising investments by expediting processes where possible.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. Wood Mackenzie analyses and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com.
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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