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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
MINER BHP CONFIRMS PLANS TO EXIT THERMAL COAL SECTOR - THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The head of mining giant BHP has laid out plans for a reshaping of its global operations by seeking to quit thermal coal mining, offload some cokin ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
LONDON RETAINS ARBITER CROWN - BALTIC EXCHANGE | HFW
Fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would dent the reputation of the nation’s capital as the leader in maritime ar ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
U.S. COAL STOCKPILES STEADILY INCREASE AFTER REACHING LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE IN 2019 - EIA
After reaching their lowest level in more than a decade in March 2019, U.S. coal stockpiles steadily increased to 152 million tons in April 2020, r ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.26 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.92 points Monday, down 0.26 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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