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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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