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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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