We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
|
|
|
Showing 796 to 800 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
