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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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