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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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