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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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