We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
|
|
|
Showing 766 to 770 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
