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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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