We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
|
|
|
Showing 756 to 760 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
|
| |
| |
|
