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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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