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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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