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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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