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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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