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Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking stagnant and could get worse in the coming days. Yesterday, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was marginally down by 0.05% to 1,885 points, shedding just one point. Still, activity in the Capesize market was low, leading the Baltic Capesize Index down by 1.37% to 3,021 points. Capesizes are typically used to haul coal and iron ore into China. Surprisingly, all other shipping segments were higher yesterday, with the Panamax market leading the foray as the BPI rose by 1.66% to 1,771 points.
According to the latest weekly report from Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS), “a slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points. The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding -6%, while the BPI fell 5%. The BSI was steady with a rise of 1.4%. However good cargo flow in the Atlantic pushed the Handysize index up 7.7% to reach 740 points. At $10,850, the Handy time charter average finished the week at its highest level since mid-June. In Russia, the government announced ambitious plans to spend nearly $600m on its grain ports, in order to increase capacity by as much as 67% over the next four years. The new investment is forecast to lift grain loading capacity to almost 42 million metric tons from 25 million tons this year. Spending would be focused on developing and adding terminals on the Baltic, Asov and Black Seas. One rail carrier estimated the improvements could increase the discount at which Russia can sell grain at international tender by $7 to $8 per ton” said BRS.
Commenting on the Capesize market it mentioned that “declines that had perhaps been expected the previous week finally appeared this week, and the BCI lost 6% to finish at 3,136 points. The 4TC fell back to $26,601. In both runs this month, rates have risen to just under $29,000 before quickly retreating. A reduction in cargo movements was notable this week however, particularly towards end week as China began its holidays. With this in mind, we are unlikely to see any major improvements in the coming week. It was a volatile week in the FFA market, but the overall trend was also down with October and Q4 contracts both losing around $1400 w-o-w. Period rates have not softened much however, and short-period was fixing at around $19,000 per day, while two 206,000 tonners (ex yard February 2012) were reported fixed for between 44-50 months at $18,000 per day less 5% commission. As expected, the BCI fell again at the start of this current week” said the shipbroker in its report.
As far as the Panamax market is concerned, “both the Atlantic and Pacific basins became tighter last week. The Indian Ocean market become stronger too with fresh cargoes released after monsoon. In the Atlantic, available open tonnage dropped significantly over the last week and the TA round voyage reached almost $15,000. On a voyage basis, USEC to Continent was in the $15.50 pmt range while USG to Continent was in the low $20s pmt with a bullish outlook. Some charterers struggled to find the right candidates for trip from US Gulf/US east Coast to Continent. Ballasters expected from the east have not yet reached the area so open vessels in the zone have dropped by 60% in 15 days. Fronthaul rates remained relatively flat in the $22,500/$22,700 range. In the Pacific, open tonnage became tighter as well and dropped by 35% in 15 days. Rates seemed to have found a floor and hold relatively well, helped by the ballasters mentioned before. The Nopac round was around $10,500. Oversupply was absorbed by fresh cargoes put into the market by Chinese players before they went on holiday, which is a good reason to say that this week should be quiet” mentioned BRS.
In a separate notice issued yesterday, Commodore Research & Consultancy commented on the fact that Chinese steel output has come under pressure as it anticipated. “The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) recently reported that daily crude steel output averaged 1.919 million tons from September 11 to September 21. This is a moderate decrease from the 1.964mt daily output average that occurred during September 1 to September 10. On a 30-day basis, the 1.919mt daily output average would yield 57.57mt of steel while the 1.964mt daily output average would yield 58.92mt. We have been predicting that Chinese steel output would come under pressure due to a recent stagnation in steel prices and increase in steel stockpiles. Chinese steel prices have come under a moderate amount of pressure since the end of August. The average price of 3.0mm hot rolled coil is now 4,760 yuan/ton, 190 yuan (-4%) less than a month ago. Chinese steel stockpiles have increased for five straight weeks and currently stand at 14.4mt. At the end of August, stockpiles stood at 13.6mt. The stagnation in steel prices and increase in steel stockpiles has been an indication that the recent level of Chinese steel output had been exceeding demand.
Going forward, Chinese steel output is likely to come under a bit more pressure during the next few weeks. Although output has declined, it is important to recognize that Chinese steel output is still relatively high and in no way is the Chinese steel industry undergoing a major correction. Instead, steel output is only coming under a small amount of pressure, which has been necessary in order to draw down stockpiles and allow prices to find support. If Chinese crude steel output ends up totaling 57mt in October, this would still be 6.7mt (13%) more than was produced in October 2010” concluded Commodore.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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