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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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