Transport Weekly reported that, Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) chairman Sabyasachi Hajara says 2011 will be a difficult year because an excess tonnage supply will depress freight rates, according to the Shipping Gazette. In an interview with India's Business Line, Mr Hajara said 2010 was a record year for delivery of new ships and 2011 will be closely following that, and thereafter it will drop.

On the demand side, there will be growth despite the financial difficulties in the euro region and in the US," he said.

BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are growing well, and that will drive the trade, he said. Because of that demand for tonnage is expected to grow at a decent pace in 2011, but the impact of excess supply of ships is expected to continue till early 2012, Mr Hazara said.

Thereafter, there will be a reasonable chance for a decent revival in rates. This is because 2009 was a historic low for new ship orders and therefore delivery of new ships will be very limited in 2012. But the growth in demand will continue following the expected global economic recovery. So, there will be demand supply equilibrium by 2012.

The container trade did much better in 2010 than in 2009 because of the self-discipline imposed by the large carriers, which laid up part of their tonnage to remedy the demand-supply mismatch.

As the global economy recovers, trade volume will go up. This should fuel growth in container volumes. "We should see nine per cent growth in volumes in 2011. Overall, the container scenario will remain good."

Mr Hazara said the growth in India's shipping industry has been really commendable. For an Indian shipowner deployment of ships will not be a problem. But the margins for Indian shipping companies, like their counterparts in other countries, will come under tremendous pressure, at least till the beginning of 2012.

Mr Hazara said there will be demand growth in all segments. Coal is going to be a big story in India. The demand for thermal coal is expected to go up to 200 million tonnes by 2013 from 80 million tonnes now. Demand for coking coal also is expected to double in the two-three years.

With steel mills expanding, coal imports will go up. Imports by Steel Authority of India (SAIL) are expected to rise from 12 million tonnes to 24-30 million tonnes in the next two-three years.

In the oil sector, India is going to depend more on imported crude, with imports expected to go up from the present level of 80 per cent to 90 per cent in the next five to seven years.
Source: Transport Weekly / Hellenic Shipping