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Wednesday, 15 December 10
SMALLER DRY BULK VESSELS ARE LOOKING UP, LARGER ONES FAIL TO DELIVER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market lost further ground at the beginning of the week, in what could prove one of the slowest periods ship owners have been faced. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) lost 0.91% to reach 2,076 points. The index, considered a benchmark for the market, has been hovering around the 2,000 – 2,200 point mark during the past few weeks unable to edge any higher. Once again, it was the larger vessel segments that dragged the market down, as opposed to their smaller counterparts which kept leaping forward. The capesize segment lost 1.15% on the day, with average daily rates now down to $24,852, while panamaxes were down 1.44%.
The BDI is now at the lowest it’s been since early August, with market analysts not quite so optimistic about the rest of the year. In a comment quoted by Bloomberg, Shalini Shekhawat, a Gurgaon, India-based analyst at Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. said that “the dry bulk market is showing no signs of improvement. The remainder of of the year will be no better, with iron ore and grain trade being insufficient to absorb the over-supply of tonnage in the market” he said. Shipping rates have fallen 31 percent this year as new vessels entered the fleet. Capesizes will expand 24 percent in 2010, driving overall dry-bulk fleet growth of 17 percent, Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker, estimates. Demand will grow 10 percent over the same time, Clarkson said.
In a separate weekly report, John Cotzias Shipping Group said that the past week was another non-decisive one, with the main motive being the total lack of any clear direction and trend. “We feel that going this way on our job as analysts becomes really dull and sometimes we feel practically “useless” as not being able to read and deduct any signals from the super volatile market fluctuations makes us just wonder how ill or not is the fate of the Dry Bulk markets? This week’s interesting moves were those of the Capes that made a small shortlived uprise towards the end of last week that momentarily gave us some happy thoughts that were quickly reversed as the index made 4 consecutive falls closing the week with a bitter after-taste.
The Panamax size segment has already added more fuel to the existing volatility and has altered the uncertain moving pattern to ups and downs that start now to fluctuate every 2-3 days!!!! It is rather odd that only the smaller sizes the Supramaxes and the Handysize ships are on a constant upward sloped pattern, and the Supras after 29 negative Baltic Exchange sessions are already counting 14 consecutive positive sessions and during the past three weeks have regained more than 23% of their strength. On a similar manner the smaller Handies have 13 positive sessions and this seems to be on a steady motive that may last during the week to come.
All large size segments were negative moving and the general Dry Index declined on the pressure produced by the large size segment’s weight. What is worth noting is the fact that all 5 indices produced their year highs during the forth-night of 19/5 until 2/6 and ever since then have all recorded losses of -50% up to -46%, a loss that is equal in percentage terms in all 5 indices despite their varying dynamics and differing level of volatility they portray.
As we mentioned last week too, China has lead the way forward and has given us some positive demand for cargoes and it is China that has generated the much needed and appreciated momentum being the steam engine that gave power to the dry bulk markets” concluded the Piraeus-based shipbroker and analyst.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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